Is the occurence of COVID-19 considered very rare? ?

Question

I understand that this strain of coronavirus, COVID-19, was brought on by a mutation. What are the odds of this virus?  Was it a one in a million occurrence? How high are the chances of a virus like this happening again? 

Answer 1

No, not very rare.



No, not one in a million. Much rarer, or more common, depending on your perspective. The population of the world is several thousand million. If the odds of it happening in a person were one in a million, then it would be in someone every few days. The odds of this exact mutation are much rarer than one in a million. But the odds that some mutation like it would happen somewhere in the world are not at all rare -- it probably happens every few years but not every virus survives.



The odds of a virus somewhat like this again are near to absolute certainly. The odds of one exactly like this are extremely remote.



For some perspective, this is at least the third major global viral pandemic in about 100 years. The two previous known examples were HIV/AIDS and an influenza pandemic from 1918 to 1920. HIV/AIDS spreads much more slower than COVID-19, kills much more slowly (over many years), and is spread in different ways (mainly sexual). But the influenza pandemic from 1918 to 1920 was remarkably similar to COVID-19 in many ways, including symptoms and how it spread.



The odds of something like that influenza pandemic or COVID-19 happening in any particular year are about 1%.

Answer 2

All viruses mutate. Some mutate every year. Mutation is a fact of viruses. 

Answer 3

Just keep eating bats. You might be fine.

Answer 4

Well, the last similar virus that we as a species had no immunity to was back in 1918 or about a 100 years ago.  We also had SARS and MERS, luckily while both of those had a higher mortality rate than COVID-19 does, they were MUCH harder to catch or we would have been in much bigger trouble.

Answer 5

It's rare to us but the last comparable pandemic was 100 years ago. We think that is a long time because most of us don't live that long but it's not really a long time, it's more like we don't live very long compared to how long the earth has been here.

Answer 6

Some say it is a hoax, some say it was made in a Chinese lab, some say it's from bats, some say it's judgment from God/Jesus or an attack from the Devil.